Reuters analysis: Russia could restart up to 80% of Black Sea grain terminal capacity if attacks stop

On Sept. 25, 2026 Reuters published an industry-data analysis finding that Russia could quickly restart up to 80% of grain terminal capacity in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov if mutual attacks cease, while three terminals — about 20% of capacity — have been heavily damaged and could take months to repair.

If a ceasefire enables the rapid reopening of up to 80% of Russian Black Sea terminal capacity, global wheat availability would increase, easing short-term import needs for major buyers such as Egypt and lowering near-term food import bill pressures. Damage to terminals representing roughly 20% of capacity implies a multi-month supply shortfall for some routes, sustaining higher freight and logistics costs until repairs are completed.

Progress of the Erdogan-led diplomatic effort and any formal ceasefire or corridor agreement to resume Black Sea shipments.