Black Sea disruptions cut Russian September wheat exports to about 1.75m tonnes

On 9 Sept 2026, analysts revised Russian September wheat export forecasts to about 1.75 million tonnes after deep-water loading at key Black Sea terminals was severely curtailed by strikes and operational suspensions, forcing a sharp month-on-month reduction in seaborne shipments and stranding physical supply.

If Black Sea seaborne exports remain constrained, import-dependent African buyers (notably Egypt and Sudan) will face higher landed wheat costs, widening fiscal subsidies or balance-of-payments needs. That pressure can feed into near-term local-bill demand and the belly of external external curves where rollover and FX funding risk are priced, even if actual sovereign repricing depends on country-specific buffers and substitution options.

Monitor October Russian export execution, reopening of Novorossiysk/Taman terminals, and major Egyptian import tenders.