Black Sea attacks curb grain exports; Russia suspends floating export duty through end‑2026

On Sept. 2, 2026 Russia announced it would suspend the floating export duty on wheat, barley and corn through Dec. 31, 2026, after intensified Black Sea attacks (escalated from Jul. 6) cut Black Sea grain exports by about 26% y/y and lifted global wheat futures to multi‑year highs.

Disrupted Black Sea shipments reduce global supply and raise import bills for net wheat importers in Africa, which can pressure fiscal balances, foreign‑exchange reserves and local rates. Governments may face choices between higher subsidies or allowing food price pass‑through; either path could widen sovereign spreads for fiscally vulnerable issuers if central banks tighten or FX reserves decline.

Monitor wheat futures and shipping volumes, plus African sovereign announcements on subsidies or balance‑of‑payments support over the next four weeks.