Escalating Houthi strikes around Bab el-Mandeb raise Red Sea shipping risk premia and oil prices

On Sept. 14, 2026 Houthi advances and renewed missile/drone strikes around the Bab el‑Mandeb and Red Sea — including attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure and shipping — have raised transit risk premia, pushed Brent above $100/bbl and increased freight costs for shipping-dependent importers.

Higher Red Sea risk premia can increase freight rates and insurance costs for vessels using routes through or near Bab el‑Mandeb, raising import bills for East African and North African importers that rely on those routes (Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Egypt). If disruptions persist, oil price premia can sustain higher fuel import bills and worsen external balances for net importers.

Whether Houthi actions persist or are countered, and any sustained closures/re-routing that materially reduces flows through Bab el‑Mandeb.