Large-scale offensive in northern Ethiopia begins; rebels seize airports and strategic towns

On 23 September 2026 the Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Coalition for Survival launched a large-scale offensive across Tigray, Afar and Amhara. Rebel forces seized the airports at Axum, Shire and Mekelle and captured towns including Alamata (retaken by ENDF on 28–29 Sept), marking a major escalation of hostilities in northern Ethiopia.

Disruption of the A1 corridor and seizure of northern airports could impede imports routed through Djibouti (including fuel) and interrupt humanitarian and donor access. Such shocks may raise political-risk premia for Ethiopian sovereign and corporate credit, and could strain external liquidity and exchange-rate pressures if sustained, though actual market moves will depend on donor responses and port access outcomes.

Whether ENDF or EPFAS secures Mekelle and whether the A1 highway to Djibouti is severed; any UN Security Council emergency actions.