Markets price Fed 25bp odds and 10-year Treasury yields top 5% on Sept 15, 2026

On September 15, 2026 markets rapidly priced a near‑certain 25bp Fed hike and the 10‑year US Treasury yield moved above 5%, prompting a broad move higher in US risk‑free rates and tighter dollar funding conditions that raise discount rates for long‑dated dollar SSA Eurobonds and corporates.

Higher US Treasury yields and a tighter expected Fed funds path increase USD discount rates and global dollar funding costs. That steepens required yields on long‑dated SSA dollar bonds and dollar‑linked corporate issuers, raising rollover and issuance costs for sovereigns such as Kenya and pressuring secondary prices for long‑duration USD Eurobonds. The effect depends on local reserves, imminent external issuance and investor risk appetite.

Fed policy decision and updated dot‑plot on Wednesday; Kenya external issuance schedule and reserve updates.