Fed hikes 25bps and Chair Warsh omits dot-plot, signaling higher-for-longer policy

On 16 September 2026 the Federal Reserve raised the target federal funds rate by 25bp to 3.75%-4.00% and, for the second consecutive SEP, Chair Warsh did not submit a dot-plot or economic projections — removing a routine guide and reinforcing a higher-for-longer policy stance.

Higher US policy rates and reduced forward guidance can raise US Treasury yields and the cost of USD funding. That amplifies rollover and issuance costs for African USD borrowers and could increase spreads demanded by investors, all else equal. This note does not assert actual repricing—only the conditional channel through which tighter US policy affects African dollar debt markets.

Next milestones: US CPI release and FOMC minutes for the Sept 15-16 meeting (which may clarify policy path).