Tunisia’s IMF program collapsed in April 2023; state financing has shifted onto domestic banks and the central bank
On April 6, 2023 President Kais Saïed publicly rejected IMF terms and the October 2022 staff-level USD1.9bn EFF never reached the Board. Since then authorities have leaned on central-bank facilities and domestic bank purchases to cover external rollovers and budget gaps, raising rollover and liquidity risks for Tunisian eurobonds and local-currency debt.
The desk brief
On April 6, 2023 President Kais Saïed publicly rejected IMF terms and the October 2022 staff-level USD1.9bn EFF never reached the Board. Since then authorities have leaned on central-bank facilities and domestic bank purchases to cover external rollovers and budget gaps, raising rollover and liquidity risks for Tunisian eurobonds and local-currency debt.
With IMF support frozen, external market access closed and central‑bank lending expanded, sovereign financing depends on domestic bank balance sheets and BCT facilities. That concentrates credit risk in the banking system, risks crowding out private lending, and leaves external eurobondholders exposed to higher conditional risk premia if domestic buffers or bilateral deposits lapse. A fresh IMF program or new bilateral deposits would materially reduce these transmission channels.
Whether Tunisian authorities formally request IMF negotiations or legislate a new BCT tranche before the next large external maturity.
Sources & verification
Developing storyFurther independent confirmation is required.
- Tunisia 2026 under Saied: the IMF-less path, BCT monetary financing, and Brussels as last creditordeluair.comSource published (opens in a new tab)
- Tunisia's Kais Saied Runs Low on Options as IMF Deal Stalls and Debt Tops 82 Percentriotimesonline.comSource published (opens in a new tab)
Public references supporting this brief.