Warsh Jackson Hole speech (Aug 28) lifts September hike odds; Treasury yields jump

On August 28, 2026 Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole keynote signalled persistent inflation concern and a readiness to act, prompting a near-term market repricing: short-term Treasury yields rose and futures-based odds of a September rate hike increased materially after the speech.

Warsh’s emphasis that “underlying inflation is not meaningfully improved” and his focus on market signals pushed short-term U.S. yields higher and lifted the probability of a near-term Fed tightening. Higher U.S. policy and short-term Treasury yields typically tighten dollar funding conditions and raise refinancing costs for African borrowers with near-term USD amortisations, increasing FX and rollover risk for Kenya and Ghana if global dollar funding tightens and the dollar strengthens.

Federal Reserve policy decision on Sept. 16, 2026 and subsequent moves in short-term Treasury yields and dollar funding spreads.