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Policy geopoliticsYemenDeveloping story

Houthis seize Perim (Mayun) Island at Bab el‑Mandeb, tightening Red Sea chokepoint

On or around 11 September 2026, Iran‑aligned Houthi forces seized Perim (Mayun) Island at the entrance to the Bab el‑Mandeb Strait, giving them greater ability to threaten Red Sea shipping and raising risks to crude and refined product flows through this key chokepoint.

On or around 11 September 2026, Iran‑aligned Houthi forces seized Perim (Mayun) Island at the entrance to the Bab el‑Mandeb Strait, giving them greater ability to threaten Red Sea shipping and raising risks to crude and refined product flows through this key chokepoint.

If control of Perim constrains traffic or prompts rerouting, freight costs and insurance premia could rise and push Brent and refined‑product prices higher. Net oil importers among African sovereigns (e.g., Kenya, Senegal, Egypt, Morocco, Ivory Coast, Ethiopia) would face larger import bills, potential FX depreciation pressure and wider sovereign spreads, while oil exporters may see relatively less direct fiscal strain. Actual market effects depend on duration, attacks on tankers, and alternative routing capacity.

Monitor UN/Security Council statements, Red Sea convoy operations, and Saudi pipeline restart or further closures within two weeks.

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