Houthi Red Sea offensive raises oil and shipping risk premiums, pressuring Egypt and Djibouti

On 14–18 September 2026, escalating Houthi attacks around the Bab el-Mandeb and seizures of Mokha and Perim island pushed oil above $100/bbl and added a transit risk premium to Red Sea shipping, raising fuel and freight costs and threatening port-dependent economies including Egypt (EGY) and Djibouti (DJI).

Higher oil prices and a shipping risk premium increase fuel import bills and raise freight costs for goods transiting the Bab el-Mandeb or rerouted via Suez/SUMED. That tightens foreign-exchange outflows for import-dependent African economies, pressures reserves, and can raise domestic inflation and transport-sector costs, particularly for countries relying on Red Sea maritime routes and nearby ports.

Monitor Suez/SUMED throughput and any official closure notices for the Bab el-Mandeb; follow Gulf diplomatic talks through Oman.