IMF staff concludes 2026 Article IV for Eswatini; public debt set to near 50% of GDP

IMF staff concluded its 2026 Article IV mission (mission visit July 23–August 5, 2026; statement published Aug 6, 2026), reporting public debt rose to about 45% of GDP at end‑FY25/26 and is expected to reach 50% of GDP by end‑FY26/27; Cabinet approved a Medium‑Term Fiscal Framework targeting a 6.2 percentage‑point structural primary balance improvement by FY31/32.

The IMF’s finding that debt will rise to about 50% of GDP and that consolidation is planned implies larger near‑term financing needs and a heavier reliance on revenue (including SACU receipts) and concessional external financing. If fiscal consolidation compresses domestic deficits via lower spending or faster-than-expected SACU receipts, it could ease refinancing needs; conversely, weaker receipts or persistently high wages could raise refinancing pressure and conditionality risk for future official financing. This is conditional analysis only — no market repricing is asserted.

Announcement of the SACU payout for the coming fiscal year and the FY26/27 budget execution against the MTFF.