IMF concludes Algeria Article IV, warns reserves could fall to $19.8bn by 2031 and flags eroded buffers

On 21 September 2026 the IMF Executive Board concluded Algeria’s 2026 Article IV consultation, warning that large fiscal deficits have eroded fiscal and external buffers and staff project gross official reserves could fall to $19.8 billion by 2031, increasing financing pressures and sovereign refinancing risk.

The IMF’s conclusion and reserve projection raise investor scrutiny of Algeria’s sovereign and quasi‑sovereign funding plans. If reserves and fiscal buffers follow the staff baseline, sovereign risk premia and funding costs could rise, and credit for energy‑linked corporates could tighten until authorities chart credible consolidation or rebuild reserves. Market impact will depend on hydrocarbon prices, policy response and external financing access.

2027 budget presentation and whether authorities save part of 2026 hydrocarbon windfall to rebuild buffers (expected within the 2027 budget cycle).