IMF: South Africa has restored fiscal credibility but must speed reforms to lift growth

On October 28, 2026 the IMF said South Africa has “restored fiscal credibility” following recent budget consolidation, but warned that faster structural reforms are needed to boost investment and raise growth, with the IMF projecting debt/GDP to stabilise around 80% over the medium term.

The IMF assessment signals reduced sovereign policy risk if Pretoria sustains the fiscal anchor and moderate spending growth, which could narrow risk premia and support demand for ZAR-denominated assets. However, the IMF’s call for faster public-investment and governance reforms implies that credit and growth improvements remain conditional on implementation — absent reforms, growth and sovereign metrics may underperform current policy expectations.

Monitor Treasury implementation of the fiscal anchor and any cabinet announcements on infrastructure/procurement reform in coming months.