Skip to content
MSA TraderAFRICAN CAPITAL MARKETS
Sign inRequest access
Market intelligence
Policy geopoliticsKenyaDeveloping story

Very strong El Niño expected Oct–Dec 2026; Kenya Met warns above‑average rains across all counties

On 26 Aug 2026 Kenya Meteorological Service warned that the intensifying 2026 El Niño will bring above‑average rains from late September through December across all 47 counties. Global outlooks (WMO/NOAA/CPC) also forecast a very strong event peaking Oct–Dec 2026 that is likely to persist into early 2027.

MSA Market DeskEvent 26 August 2026Reviewed 2 min read

The desk brief

On 26 Aug 2026 Kenya Meteorological Service warned that the intensifying 2026 El Niño will bring above‑average rains from late September through December across all 47 counties. Global outlooks (WMO/NOAA/CPC) also forecast a very strong event peaking Oct–Dec 2026 that is likely to persist into early 2027.

A very strong El Niño raising rainfall and temperature extremes in Kenya could disrupt harvests, lift food inflation and prompt emergency fiscal spending. If realised, such stresses typically concentrate risk in the short to belly part of the sovereign curve (near‑term rollover and budget financing) and raise import demand for FX, especially for staple imports and agri‑linked corporates. This is conditional on realised local rainfall impacts and policy responses; it does not assert any current market repricing.

Next official CPC/NOAA and Kenya Met monthly outlooks and any Kenyan fiscal contingency or emergency spending announcements.

Sources & verification

Developing story

Further independent confirmation is required.

Public references supporting this brief.

Was this brief useful?
Back to the briefing

Price Discovery

Kenya sovereign curve

Latest server-calculated mid yield by maturity. Points are observed Price Discovery levels, not an interpolated valuation curve.

11 priced bonds
10.89%9.66%8.44%7.22%6.00%20272032203720422048Kenya 27 · May 2027 · 6.647%Kenya 28 · Feb 2028 · 7.189%Kenya 31 · Feb 2031 · 8.149%Kenya 32 · May 2032 · 8.952%Kenya 33 · Oct 2033 · 9.153%Kenya 34 Jan · Jan 2034 · 9.338%Kenya 34 Feb · Feb 2034 · 9.792%Kenya 36 · Mar 2036 · 9.944%Kenya 38 · Oct 2038 · 10.204%Kenya 39 · Feb 2039 · 10.239%Kenya 48 · Feb 2048 · 9.964%
Move across the curve to inspect a bondAs of
BondMid pxYield
  • Kenya 27May 2027100.1886.647%
  • Kenya 28Feb 2028100.0637.189%
  • Kenya 31Feb 2031104.5008.149%
  • Kenya 32May 203296.5008.952%
  • Kenya 33Oct 203394.2509.153%
  • Kenya 34 JanJan 203484.2509.338%
  • Kenya 34 FebFeb 203491.1259.792%
  • Kenya 36Mar 203697.5009.944%
  • Kenya 38Oct 203890.87510.204%
  • Kenya 39Feb 203989.81310.239%
  • Kenya 48Feb 204884.9389.964%

Indicative levels only. Full bid/ask context and trading actions remain inside MSA Trader.

Open Price Discovery
All market intelligence