Markets fully price a 25bp Fed rate hike in December after upside October CPI (11 Nov 2026)
On 11 November 2026, markets sharply repriced US policy: market-implied probabilities moved to roughly an 86% chance of a 25bp Federal Reserve hike in December, with non-trivial odds priced for a 50bp move, after October CPI surprised to the upside and hawkish Fed commentary.
The desk brief
On 11 November 2026, markets sharply repriced US policy: market-implied probabilities moved to roughly an 86% chance of a 25bp Federal Reserve hike in December, with non-trivial odds priced for a 50bp move, after October CPI surprised to the upside and hawkish Fed commentary.
Higher US policy expectations and the jump in Treasury yields typically raise global benchmark funding costs and can widen emerging-market sovereign spreads. For South Africa, a rising US real yield backdrop would likely pressure ZAR and USD-denominated sovereign yields via tighter global financial conditions and portfolio rebalancing away from EM assets, conditional on idiosyncratic local news remaining unchanged.
FOMC decision and statement at the December meeting (policy rate announcement and dot plot).
Sources & verification
Developing storyDeveloping story supported by 2 independent public publishers; further confirmation is being sought.
- Financial Markets Daily Report 11 November 2026caixabankresearch.comSource published (opens in a new tab)
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Surpasses 5% Amid Rising Expectations for Fed Rate Hikes | KuCoinkucoin.comSource published (opens in a new tab)
Public references supporting this brief.