Nigeria averaged 1.55 mb/d in Q1 2026 as government seeks higher output

Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics reported average daily crude oil production of 1.55 million barrels per day in Q1 2026 (published 26 May 2026). By 6 September 2026 authorities were publicly seeking to raise crude output to bolster FX and fiscal receipts, per local reporting.

If Nigeria sustainably raises production above the 1.55 mb/d Q1 2026 baseline, incremental exports would likely ease external financing pressure and reduce sovereign spread premia by improving FX receipts and fiscal revenues. Conversely, failure to translate production intent into durable higher output would keep existing external funding and FX risks elevated. The transmission depends on realized export volumes, price levels and the pace of domestic refining demand absorption.

Next OPEC+ review meeting scheduled for October 4, 2026 (may affect output guidance).