Nigeria says crude-oil theft fell to lowest since 2009; Jan–Jul 2025 losses 2.04m barrels

On September 12, 2025 the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission reported that crude-oil losses from theft and metering fell to 2.04 million barrels in January–July 2025 (average 9,600 bpd), the lowest since 2009, a 50.2% reduction versus the same period in 2024 and a 94.57% fall from the 2021 peak.

If sustained, the reported fall in theft and metering losses increases effective export volumes and government oil revenues, easing Nigeria’s external financing pressure and potentially narrowing sovereign and oil-sector credit premia versus regional peers. This is conditional on continued security, metering integrity, and that the additional volumes are realized as exports rather than domestic displacement or prolonged stock build-up.

NUPRC full-year 2025 loss statistics or Nigeria’s official oil-revenue figures in the 2026 budget update.