Ukraine says no Black Sea ceasefire expected, keeping grain-export disruption in place

On Sept 28-29, 2026 Ukraine officials said Russia has rejected all proposals for a limited Black Sea truce, and Kyiv does not expect a ceasefire covering grain exports in the coming months. This confirms continued disruption to shipments from Odesa and constrained seaborne exports.

Sustained limits on Black Sea seaborne exports raise global grain prices and import bills, which can increase inflation and foreign-exchange pressures for grain-dependent African importers (Egypt, Kenya, Ethiopia, Senegal, Morocco, Ivory Coast). The scale and timing of domestic rate or reserve impacts depend on each country's reliance on Black Sea supplies, import bill size, and policy buffers.

Monitor Turkish-led diplomatic efforts and any new truce proposals or signs of resumed Odesa exports over the next months.