Cabo Delgado insurgency becomes protracted; Mozambique LNG restart raises execution and fiscal risks

On 6–12 June 2026 reporting characterises the Cabo Delgado insurgency as having shifted into a "long-term attrition" phase while TotalEnergies resumed work on the Mozambique LNG project in January 2026. The persistence of violence raises execution, insurance and fiscal risks for the Mozambique LNG project and related sovereign and project-linked debt exposures.

A shift to protracted, low‑intensity conflict increases the probability of production delays, higher project security and insurance costs, and contingent fiscal burdens on Maputo (security funding, compensation, guarantees). That raises execution risk for project cashflows and could worsen credit profiles for project‑linked creditors and the sovereign if costs or revenue timelines shift materially; market repricing would depend on investors' assessment of those contingencies.

Monitor Rwandan forces' withdrawal/renewal decision and any official updates to the project's security or compensation agreements within the next six months.