Mid‑2026 analyses quantify long‑term economic cost of Sudan conflict and huge poverty spillovers
On 15 April–28 July 2026 UNDP‑linked research and an Institute for Security Studies analysis model that if Sudan’s war persists to 2030 the country would lose roughly US$34.5 billion in GDP by 2043 and an additional ~34 million people could be pushed into extreme poverty, with deep, lasting regional spillovers.
The desk brief
On 15 April–28 July 2026 UNDP‑linked research and an Institute for Security Studies analysis model that if Sudan’s war persists to 2030 the country would lose roughly US$34.5 billion in GDP by 2043 and an additional ~34 million people could be pushed into extreme poverty, with deep, lasting regional spillovers.
If conflict endures, Sudan’s sharply lower GDP trajectory and soaring poverty will raise neighbouring sovereigns’ fiscal and contingent‑liability risks through refugee flows, disrupted trade corridors and humanitarian financing needs. That transmission can tighten short‑dated refinancing conditions for exposed neighbours and raise risk premia on regional sovereign and corporate paper, conditional on investor perception of contagion and policy response.
Publication or release of an explicit UN/World Bank regional fiscal‑contingency estimate or a donor financing/peace‑for‑reconstruction pledging event.
Sources & verification
Developing storyFurther independent confirmation is required.
- Continued conflict could further ruin Sudan’s economyissafrica.org (opens in a new tab)
- ‘Erosion of a country’s future’: What has the war cost Sudan?aljazeera.comSource published (opens in a new tab)
Public references supporting this brief.