Large-scale rebel offensive in northern Ethiopia begins on 23 Sep 2026, seizing airports and towns

On 23 September 2026 a broad rebel offensive (EPFAS/TDF coalition) against the Ethiopian National Defense Force began in Tigray, Afar and Amhara, with rebels seizing Axum, Shire and Mekelle airports and capturing towns through 28–29 September, marking a major escalation in northern Ethiopia.

Sustained large-scale fighting and control of airports can interrupt customs and port-dependent trade routes, raise humanitarian and security spending, and disrupt airline services — pressures that typically increase sovereign funding needs and risk premia on Ethiopia’s external USD curve. Regional banking and corporate revenue links to Ethiopia could widen credit spreads if operations or trade corridors are disrupted. This is conditional on duration, scale of fiscal shock, and market risk appetite.

UN, AU or major power diplomatic efforts and any confirmed Eritrean troop involvement reported to the UN or major outlets within 7–14 days.