Renewed Houthi campaign raises Bab el‑Mandeb shipping risk, pressuring import-dependent African economies

From early October 2026, reporting shows the Houthis have renewed missile, drone and selective naval attacks and declared a blockade targeting Saudi-linked tonnage, elevating commercial shipping risk through the Bab el‑Mandeb and raising freight, insurance and routing costs that transmit to import-dependent African states from Djibouti to Egypt. (events reported 9–15 Oct 2026).

Higher war‑risk premiums, longer routings around the Cape and disruptions to Saudi export routing raise freight and fuel costs and shorten import volumes. For African importers this can deplete FX reserves via higher import bills, strain fiscal budgets that subsidise food/fuel, and concentrate pressure on the belly of sovereign curves where rollover needs and short-term external liabilities are most exposed. Effects depend on duration and whether insurers widen explicit route exclusions.

UKMTO/JMIC incident notices and Suez/Bab el‑Mandeb weekly transit counts over the next 14 days.