Russia forecasts 2026 crude output at 9.88 mb/d, lowest since 2009; earlier admissions of falling output and fuel export bans
On September 2, 2026 Russia's draft forecast cut 2026 crude production to 494.2 million tonnes (9.88 million barrels per day), its lowest since 2009; this follows a June 4 public acknowledgement from Moscow that oil production has fallen and recent bans on fuel exports, tightening product supply.
The desk brief
On September 2, 2026 Russia's draft forecast cut 2026 crude production to 494.2 million tonnes (9.88 million barrels per day), its lowest since 2009; this follows a June 4 public acknowledgement from Moscow that oil production has fallen and recent bans on fuel exports, tightening product supply.
Reduced Russian refining and product exports — via lower crude output and explicit kerosene/jet fuel and gasoline/ diesel export restrictions — is likely to tighten global fuel markets and put upward pressure on diesel and bunker prices. That dynamic can improve fiscal receipts for oil-exporting producers with established crude sales, while increasing import bills and inflationary pressure for fuel importers, potentially widening medium‑to‑long curve sovereign spreads if the shock persists.
Finalisation of Russia's forecasts at end-September 2026 and any extension/expiry dates for fuel export bans.
Sources & verification
Developing storyFurther independent confirmation is required.
- Russia cuts expected 2026 oil output to 17-year low on war fallout, draft forecasts show - CNBC TV18reutersSource published (opens in a new tab)
- Russia Admits Oil Output Is Falling as Ukrainian Drone Strikes Hits Refineries | OilPrice.comoilprice.comSource published (opens in a new tab)
Public references supporting this brief.