SARB study finds 3% target robust; expects inflation to remain within 2–4% under typical shocks

On 20 April 2026 the South African Reserve Bank published a working paper and accompanying economic note finding inflation expectations more forward‑looking and concluding there is a high probability that inflation will stay close to the 3% goal — the note states a 78% chance inflation remains within a 2%–4% band absent major shocks.

If inflation expectations are better anchored, as the SARB study finds, the pass‑through from shocks into expected inflation and required term premia on South African local‑currency debt should be smaller. That implies lower upside risk to long‑end ZAR sovereign yields versus a scenario of unanchored expectations, conditional on no large simultaneous shocks to oil, the rand or administered prices. This does not assert any realised repricing without market evidence.

SARB’s next published inflation projections (Quarterly Bulletin or MPC decision) and market reaction at the following MPC meeting.