SBI Ecowrap projects US 10-year yield near 4.75%; short spike to ~5.25–5.35% possible
On 1 November 2026 SBI Research (Ecowrap) said its most-likely scenario sees the 10-year US Treasury yield settling broadly around 4.75%, while warning a short-term spike to 5.25–5.35% around the US mid-term elections is possible; the note estimates a USD 304 billion excess supply of US Treasuries.
The desk brief
On 1 November 2026 SBI Research (Ecowrap) said its most-likely scenario sees the 10-year US Treasury yield settling broadly around 4.75%, while warning a short-term spike to 5.25–5.35% around the US mid-term elections is possible; the note estimates a USD 304 billion excess supply of US Treasuries.
If US 10-year yields remain elevated near SBI's 4.75% base case or temporarily spike above 5.25%, higher US Treasury benchmarks would raise global funding costs and could widen spreads on USD-denominated SSA sovereign and corporate debt (including South African USD issuance) by increasing investor compensation demands and prompting potential FPI outflows. The degree of spread reaction will depend on local rates, FX moves and portfolio flows.
US mid-term election result (expected 9 November 2026) and subsequent US fiscal policy signals.
Sources & verification
Verified briefVerified from 3 independent public publishers.
- US Treasury yields could settle around 4.75 pc: SBI reportianslive.inSource published (opens in a new tab)
- Indian 10-year bond yields may ease to 6.75%-7% by March 2027, rupee likely to appreciate: SBI Researchindiatimes.comSource published (opens in a new tab)
- India’s 10-year G-Sec yield could settle in the 6.75-7.00% range by March-end 2027: SBI Ecowrapthehindubusinessline.comSource published (opens in a new tab)
Public references supporting this brief.