UBS now expects two 25bp Fed hikes in September and December 2026

On 7 September 2026 UBS Global Wealth Management revised its Fed view to forecast two 25 basis-point rate increases in September and December 2026, reversing an earlier call for no policy change and raising short-term US rate expectations that can increase global funding costs for external borrowers.

If the Fed tightens as UBS forecasts, short-term US Treasury yields and dollar funding costs are likely to rise, increasing rollover costs for USD-denominated African external debt and putting duration pressure on existing Eurobonds. Issuers with concentrated near-term amortisations or large short-dated external liabilities will face higher refinancing costs and potential spread sensitivity even without immediate spread widening.

FOMC meeting on September 15–16, 2026 (policy decision and statement).