Houthi offensive near Bab al‑Mandeb in early Sept 2026 heightens Red Sea shipping risk

On 5 September 2026 Houthi forces launched a major offensive toward territory overlooking the Bab al‑Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea coast, intensifying attacks on commercial shipping and prompting persistent route avoidance and higher freight and insurance premia that raise import costs for Red Sea‑dependent African importers (eg. EGY, KEN, ETH, MAR, SEN, CIV).

If the offensive and Houthi attacks persist, more vessels will continue to avoid the Suez–Red Sea corridor and reroute around the Cape of Good Hope. That raises voyage time by 10–14 days and increases freight and insurance costs, widening current‑account deficits and imported inflation for affected African importers; fiscal and rollover pressures could rise for exposed sovereign issuers if higher import bills persist.

Whether Houthis seize permanent control of Mokha/Bab el‑Mandeb or international naval escorts restore normal transit through the strait.