Fed Governor Waller signals conditional support for a September rate hold, easing near-term hike odds
On September 3, 2026, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he would be "inclined to support holding the target for the federal funds rate at its current setting" if upcoming August inflation data show continued disinflation, prompting a sharp fall in market-implied odds of a September rate hike.
The desk brief
On September 3, 2026, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he would be "inclined to support holding the target for the federal funds rate at its current setting" if upcoming August inflation data show continued disinflation, prompting a sharp fall in market-implied odds of a September rate hike.
Waller's conditional "hold if data permits" signal reduces the immediate odds of a September hike and so can lower near-term U.S. Treasury yields and dollar volatility; that change alters the benchmark drivers for African USD eurobonds. Long-duration, higher-beta sovereigns and import-dependent issuers (long-maturity USD curves such as Nigeria's) face the largest sensitivity to a U.S. policy and dollar repricing, especially in the belly-to-long end of their curves.
August CPI and PCE-related releases due before the Sept. 15-16 FOMC meeting will determine whether Waller sustains his support for a pause.
Sources & verification
Developing storyFurther independent confirmation is required.
- Speech by Governor Waller on the economic outlookfederalreserve.gov (opens in a new tab)
- Fed's Waller open to leaving rates unchanged this month if inflation coolskitco.comSource published (opens in a new tab)
Public references supporting this brief.