World Bank raises Kenya 2026 growth forecast to 4.6% and flags governance risks

On 4 November 2026 the World Bank, in its Kenya Economic Update launched in Nairobi, raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 4.6% (up 0.3 percentage points from its July outlook) after stronger-than-expected H1 activity, while warning that fiscal pressures, governance and external shocks pose key downside risks.

A higher World Bank growth forecast could support investor sentiment around Kenya’s macro outlook, but the World Bank’s simultaneous emphasis on fiscal vulnerabilities, elevated public debt and governance constraints may limit confidence in near-term fiscal space and creditworthiness. External shocks or weaker investment would still risk slowing growth and widening the current account deficit, per the report’s warnings.

Publish full Kenya Economic Update text and government response to the report; monitor fiscal policy statements and budget revisions.