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Issuer developmentsAngolaDeveloping story

Oxford Economics forecasts Angola oil output at 1.14m b/d in 2026, easing near‑term external serviceability

On 4 Feb 2026 Oxford Economics forecast Angola's oil production will rise to about 1.14 million barrels per day in 2026 (a 6.5% increase from 2025), a change that, if realised, would raise FX inflows and hydrocarbon receipts, improving near‑term sovereign external serviceability.

MSA Market DeskEvent 4 February 2026Reviewed 1 min read

The desk brief

On 4 Feb 2026 Oxford Economics forecast Angola's oil production will rise to about 1.14 million barrels per day in 2026 (a 6.5% increase from 2025), a change that, if realised, would raise FX inflows and hydrocarbon receipts, improving near‑term sovereign external serviceability.

Higher-than-expected crude output in 2026 would mechanically increase Angola’s hydrocarbon export volumes and fiscal receipts in USD, improving the government's external cashflow and lowering near-term rollover and FX pressure. The degree to which sovereign spreads or FX rates adjust depends on realized volumes, international oil prices, and the government's fiscal/liquidity management; delivery risk remains key.

ANPG monthly production releases and first-half 2026 actual output to confirm whether Oxford’s forecast is realised.

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Developing story

Further independent confirmation is required.

Public references supporting this brief.

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Price Discovery

Angola sovereign curve

Latest server-calculated mid yield by maturity. Points are observed Price Discovery levels, not an interpolated valuation curve.

9 priced bonds
11.32%10.05%8.77%7.49%6.22%20282033203920442049Angola 28 · May 2028 · 6.894%Angola 29 · Nov 2029 · 8.113%Angola 31 · Jan 2031 · 8.857%Angola 32 · Apr 2032 · 9.298%Angola 33 · Mar 2033 · 9.678%Angola 35 · Oct 2035 · 9.906%Angola 37 · Mar 2037 · 10.168%Angola 48 · May 2048 · 10.598%Angola 49 · Nov 2049 · 10.646%
Move across the curve to inspect a bondAs of
BondMid pxYield
  • Angola 28May 2028101.9386.894%
  • Angola 29Nov 202999.6888.113%
  • Angola 31Jan 2031101.3138.857%
  • Angola 32Apr 203297.6889.298%
  • Angola 33Mar 203398.5639.678%
  • Angola 35Oct 203599.8139.906%
  • Angola 37Mar 203798.12510.168%
  • Angola 48May 204889.68810.598%
  • Angola 49Nov 204987.00010.646%

Indicative levels only. Full bid/ask context and trading actions remain inside MSA Trader.

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