Fed September-hike odds rise above 50% after Jackson Hole repricing

On September 8, 2026 market pricing shifted: CME FedWatch and other platform-implied odds that the Fed will raise rates at the September meeting rose above 50%, signalling a material reassessment of near‑term US policy expectations and pushing short‑term Treasury yields higher.

Higher odds of a September Fed hike raise US discount rates and short‑end Treasury yields, which mechanically increase the risk‑free discount used to value USD‑denominated African external bonds. The clearest transmission is to long‑dated, funding‑needy issuers where higher benchmark yields can push funding costs up and create scope for wider sovereign and corporate spreads, conditional on local fundamentals and risk premia.

FOMC policy decision and statement at the mid‑September meeting (Sept. 16–17, 2026).