Global bond selloff drives US 10-year Treasury above 5%, extending pressure on long-dated African eurobonds

On Sept 25, 2026 the global bond selloff pushed long-dated US Treasury yields above 5%, a multi-decade high for the 10-year, accelerating duration losses for long-dated dollar bonds and increasing refinancing premia for dollar-dependent African sovereigns such as Ghana and Zambia versus locally-funded South Africa.

Higher US 10-year yields lift the global risk-free discount rate, mechanically reducing prices (raising yields) on long-dated USD eurobonds. Dollar-dependent African sovereigns that issue long-dated external debt (Ghana, Zambia) face larger refinancing premia and duration losses versus issuers funded predominantly in local currency (South Africa). The move raises rollover costs and pushes up USD funding spreads conditionally, without implying a fixed spread widening magnitude.

Next FOMC meeting (Oct 27-28, 2026) is the key near-term policy event that could sustain or reverse the Treasury repricing.